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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
10
18
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
7
10
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
10
18
20
11
11
42
1
1
0
2
23
18
21
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
30
50
90
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
10
15
35
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
10
16
29
32
18
18
68
2
2
0
3
37
29
34
100

hitrate: 0.100 hitrate: 0.210
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 0.00 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.78 2.33 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.350 Heidke skill score: -0.185
true Heidke skill score: -0.104 true Heidke skill score: -0.154
Kuipers skill score: -0.350 Kuipers skill score: -0.185
true Kuipers skill score: -0.140 true Kuipers skill score: -0.159
threat score:
0.105 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.051 0.224 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.043 0.000 -0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.145 -0.032 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.087 0.611 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.738 1.000
samples: 20 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 32.26 %coverage: 100.00