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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
9
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
9
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
9
16
21
13
12
46
0
0
0
0
23
18
21
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
31
56
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
31
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
15
26
34
21
19
74
0
0
0
0
37
29
34
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.70 2.56 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.100
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.104
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.054 0.255 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.127 -0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.087 0.722 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.717 0.000
samples: 16 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 25.81 %coverage: 100.00