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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
10
17
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
10
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
10
17
21
13
11
45
0
0
0
0
23
18
21
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
29
59
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
29
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
16
27
34
21
18
73
0
0
0
0
37
29
34
100

hitrate: 0.118 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.50 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.74 2.50 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.324 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.103
Kuipers skill score: -0.324 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.118 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.053 0.260 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.136 -0.002 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.087 0.722 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.711 0.000
samples: 17 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 27.42 %coverage: 100.00