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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
11
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
11
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
11
18
21
13
10
44
0
0
0
0
23
18
21
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
28
61
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
28
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
18
29
34
21
16
71
0
0
0
0
37
29
34
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.78 2.44 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.105
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.108
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.051 0.265 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.145 0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.087 0.722 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.705 0.000
samples: 18 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 29.03 %coverage: 100.00