CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
8
19
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
4
8
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
8
19
19
10
13
42
0
1
0
1
23
18
21
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
35
40
95
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
5
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
13
31
31
16
21
68
0
2
0
2
37
29
34
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.75 0.00 0.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 2.33 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.013 true Heidke skill score: -0.132
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.016 true Kuipers skill score: -0.136
threat score:
0.211 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.105 0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.013 0.000 -0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.098 -0.058 -0.016
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.174 0.556 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.789 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.789 0.762 1.000
samples: 20 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 32.26 %coverage: 100.00