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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
10
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
7
10
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
10
20
20
11
11
42
0
0
0
0
23
18
21
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
35
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
35
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
16
32
32
18
18
68
0
0
0
0
37
29
34
100

hitrate: 0.150 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.67 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 2.33 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.275 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.132
Kuipers skill score: -0.275 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.136
threat score:
0.150 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.075 0.224 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.136 -0.032 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.130 0.611 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.850 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.850 0.738 0.000
samples: 20 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 32.26 %coverage: 100.00