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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
44
29
27
100
0
0
0
0
45
31
30
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
33
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
42
27
25
94
0
0
0
0
42
29
28
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.283
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 3.23 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.026
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.020 0.284 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.003 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.022 0.935 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.710 0.000
samples: 6 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 5.66 %coverage: 100.00