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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
1
4
9
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
16
14
18
48
1
2
0
3
17
18
27
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
64
79
0
0
0
0
7
14
0
21
7
29
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
15
18
26
23
29
77
2
3
0
5
27
29
44
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.00 0.00 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.65 2.67 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.241 true Heidke skill score: -0.097
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.388 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.269 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.070 0.000 -0.191
equitable threat score:
-0.121 0.002 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.708 1.000
samples: 14 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 22.58 %coverage: 100.00