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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
0
5
2
3
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
15
27
57
2
3
0
5
17
18
27
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
60
0
100
40
60
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
24
44
92
3
5
0
8
27
29
44
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.17 0.19
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.086
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.092
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.036 -0.073
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.737 1.000
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00