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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
8
10
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
1
4
8
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
8
10
16
14
19
49
1
2
0
3
17
18
27
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
15
62
77
0
0
0
0
8
15
0
23
8
31
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
13
16
26
23
31
79
2
3
0
5
27
29
44
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
10.00 0.00 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.59 2.72 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.252 true Heidke skill score: -0.098
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.386 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.264 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.075 0.000 -0.202
equitable threat score:
-0.113 -0.006 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.714 1.000
samples: 13 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 20.97 %coverage: 100.00