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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
4
1
3
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
43
102
1
3
0
4
31
32
43
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
0
100
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
27
41
96
1
3
0
4
29
30
41
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.274
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.19 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.090
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.046
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.090
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.276 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 -0.036
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.906 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.716 1.000
samples: 4 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 3.77 %coverage: 100.00