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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
12
5
19
0
0
0
0
3
7
3
13
5
19
8
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
12
5
19
11
9
10
30
3
7
3
13
16
28
18
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
38
16
59
0
0
0
0
9
22
9
41
16
59
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
19
8
31
18
15
16
48
5
11
5
21
26
45
29
100

hitrate: 0.156 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.80 0.00 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.19 1.07 0.72
Heidke skill score: -0.266 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.047 true Heidke skill score: -0.207
Kuipers skill score: -0.266 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.068 true Kuipers skill score: -0.206
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.061 0.184 0.107
equitable threat score:
-0.051 0.000 -0.017
equitable threat score:
-0.103 -0.128 -0.032
probability of detection:
0.400 0.000 0.375
probability of detection:
0.125 0.321 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.895 0.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.895 0.700 0.769
samples: 32 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 51.61 %coverage: 100.00