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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
6
12
0
0
0
0
2
9
3
14
3
14
9
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
6
12
13
14
9
36
2
9
3
14
16
28
18
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
19
23
46
0
0
0
0
8
35
12
54
12
54
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
8
10
19
21
23
15
58
3
15
5
23
26
45
29
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.290
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 1.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.29 0.78
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.065
true Heidke skill score: -0.113 true Heidke skill score: -0.140
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.065
true Kuipers skill score: -0.149 true Kuipers skill score: -0.135
threat score:
0.071 0.000 0.150
threat score:
0.037 0.280 0.103
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.000 -0.122
equitable threat score:
-0.088 -0.067 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.062 0.500 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.000 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.611 0.786
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00