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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
1
6
1
4
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
24
17
56
1
4
1
6
16
28
18
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
67
17
100
17
67
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
39
27
90
2
6
2
10
26
45
29
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.33
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.037 -0.035
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.571 0.833
samples: 6 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 9.68 %coverage: 100.00