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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
7
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
25
17
55
3
3
1
7
16
28
18
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
43
14
100
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
40
27
89
5
5
2
11
26
45
29
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.419
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.96 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: 0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.025
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: 0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.431 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.005 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.893 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.545 0.857
samples: 7 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 11.29 %coverage: 100.00