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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
5
1
3
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
25
17
57
1
3
1
5
16
28
18
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
20
100
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
40
27
92
2
5
2
8
26
45
29
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.419
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.04 0.28
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.417 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.022 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.893 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.561 0.800
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00