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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
26
17
58
1
2
1
4
16
28
18
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
42
27
94
2
3
2
6
26
45
29
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.435
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.07 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.153
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.153
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.433 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.006 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.552 0.750
samples: 4 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 6.45 %coverage: 100.00