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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
42
26
102
1
2
1
4
35
44
27
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
40
25
96
1
2
1
4
33
42
25
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.406
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.32 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.108
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.108
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.006 -0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.955 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.588 0.750
samples: 4 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 3.77 %coverage: 100.00