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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
7
14
0
0
0
0
11
6
2
19
12
12
9
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
7
14
4
11
14
29
11
6
2
19
16
23
23
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
18
21
42
0
0
0
0
33
18
6
58
36
36
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
10
11
23
6
18
23
47
18
10
3
31
26
37
37
100

hitrate: 0.091 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.17 0.00 2.11
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 1.26 0.83
Heidke skill score: -0.364 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.320 true Heidke skill score: -0.183
Kuipers skill score: -0.364 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.182
threat score:
0.040 0.000 0.077
threat score:
0.034 0.268 0.050
equitable threat score:
-0.205 0.000 -0.153
equitable threat score:
-0.103 0.008 -0.153
probability of detection:
0.083 0.000 0.222
probability of detection:
0.062 0.478 0.087
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.929 0.000 0.895
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.929 0.621 0.895
samples: 33 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 53.23 %coverage: 100.00