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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
7
13
0
0
0
0
9
4
1
14
10
9
8
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
7
13
6
14
15
35
9
4
1
14
16
23
23
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
19
26
48
0
0
0
0
33
15
4
52
37
33
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
8
11
21
10
23
24
56
15
6
2
23
26
37
37
100

hitrate: 0.074 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.30 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.81 1.52 0.61
Heidke skill score: -0.389 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: -0.386 true Heidke skill score: -0.137
Kuipers skill score: -0.389 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: -0.388 true Kuipers skill score: -0.136
threat score:
0.045 0.000 0.048
threat score:
0.036 0.318 0.028
equitable threat score:
-0.222 0.000 -0.187
equitable threat score:
-0.096 0.033 -0.136
probability of detection:
0.100 0.000 0.125
probability of detection:
0.062 0.609 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.923 0.000 0.929
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.923 0.600 0.929
samples: 27 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 43.55 %coverage: 100.00