CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
2
9
0
0
0
0
2
7
6
15
6
10
8
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
2
9
10
13
15
38
2
7
6
15
16
23
23
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
13
8
38
0
0
0
0
8
29
25
63
25
42
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
3
15
16
21
24
61
3
11
10
24
26
37
37
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 1.65 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: 0.164 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: 0.176 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.364 0.000 0.353
threat score:
0.190 0.271 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.090 -0.032 0.016
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.250 0.565 0.261
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.658 0.600
samples: 24 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 38.71 %coverage: 100.00