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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
7
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
17
20
55
3
2
2
7
21
19
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
29
29
100
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
27
32
89
5
3
3
11
34
31
35
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.89 0.32
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.298 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.691 0.714
samples: 7 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 11.29 %coverage: 100.00