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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
3
7
20
10
3
7
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
16
15
42
10
3
7
20
21
19
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
15
35
100
50
15
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
26
24
68
16
5
11
32
34
31
35
100

hitrate: 0.350 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.21 0.91
Heidke skill score: 0.025 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.072
Kuipers skill score: 0.025 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.073
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.350
threat score:
0.000 0.356 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.097 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.650
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.619 0.650
samples: 20 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 32.26 %coverage: 100.00