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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
6
10
2
2
6
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
17
16
52
2
2
6
10
21
19
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
60
100
20
20
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
27
26
84
3
3
10
16
34
31
35
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.74 0.45
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.083
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.315 0.231
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.028 0.109
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.400
samples: 10 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 16.13 %coverage: 100.00