CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
7
17
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
5
10
3
9
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
7
17
11
16
13
40
2
1
2
5
21
19
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
36
9
32
77
0
0
0
0
9
5
9
23
45
14
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
3
11
27
18
26
21
65
3
2
3
8
34
31
35
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.419
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.70 0.00 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.81 2.11 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: 0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.019 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: 0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.017 true Kuipers skill score: 0.151
threat score:
0.421 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.267 0.372 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.024 0.000 -0.005
equitable threat score:
0.092 0.122 0.010
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.222
probability of detection:
0.381 0.842 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.529 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.529 0.600 0.600
samples: 22 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 35.48 %coverage: 100.00