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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
2
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
2
8
22
14
18
54
0
0
0
0
25
17
20
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
38
25
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
38
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
3
13
35
23
29
87
0
0
0
0
40
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.274
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 3.18 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.246 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.008 -0.019 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.120 0.824 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.741 0.000
samples: 8 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 12.90 %coverage: 100.00