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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
24
15
19
58
0
0
0
0
25
17
20
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
50
25
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
6
39
24
31
94
0
0
0
0
40
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.41 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.037
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.036 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.023 -0.020 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.040 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.741 0.000
samples: 4 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 6.45 %coverage: 100.00