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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
2
7
1
4
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
13
18
55
1
4
2
7
25
17
20
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
57
29
100
14
57
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
21
29
89
2
6
3
11
40
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.24 0.35
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.057
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.220 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.047 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.765 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.764 0.714
samples: 7 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 11.29 %coverage: 100.00