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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
4
6
4
14
6
7
4
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
24
13
8
45
4
6
4
14
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
6
0
18
0
0
0
0
24
35
24
82
35
41
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
39
21
13
73
6
10
6
23
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.353 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.25 1.17
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: 0.149 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.065 0.250 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.000 0.066
equitable threat score:
0.019 -0.040 0.067
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.650 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.711 0.714
samples: 17 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 27.42 %coverage: 100.00