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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
4
1
0
5
6
2
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
24
18
12
54
4
1
0
5
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
13
0
38
0
0
0
0
50
13
0
63
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
39
29
19
87
6
2
0
8
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.70 0.42
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: -0.083 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.065 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.053 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.015 -0.060
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.667 1.000
samples: 8 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 12.90 %coverage: 100.00