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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
27
19
12
58
0
0
0
0
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
75
25
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
0
6
44
31
19
94
0
0
0
0
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.90 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.750 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.097 0.322 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.037 0.007 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.100 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.672 0.000
samples: 4 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 6.45 %coverage: 100.00