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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
4
4
2
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
26
18
11
55
2
1
1
4
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
14
0
43
0
0
0
0
29
14
14
57
57
29
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
42
29
18
89
3
2
2
6
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.75 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.152 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.179 true Kuipers skill score: 0.027
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.065 0.316 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.087 0.000 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.007 0.016
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.900 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.673 0.750
samples: 7 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 11.29 %coverage: 100.00