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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
0
6
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
6
7
3
2
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
0
6
23
17
10
50
2
2
2
6
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
42
8
0
50
0
0
0
0
17
17
17
50
58
25
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
10
37
27
16
81
3
3
3
10
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.387
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.50 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.081
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.091
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.081
true Kuipers skill score: 0.366 true Kuipers skill score: 0.098
threat score:
0.625 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.161 0.321 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.075 0.024 0.057
probability of detection:
0.714 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.850 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.660 0.667
samples: 12 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 19.35 %coverage: 100.00