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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
7
2
0
9
8
3
1
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
22
17
11
50
7
2
0
9
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
8
25
0
0
0
0
58
17
0
75
67
25
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
35
27
18
81
11
3
0
15
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.290
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.00 9.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.50 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.065
true Heidke skill score: -0.189 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.065
true Kuipers skill score: -0.300 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.031 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 -0.081
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.024 -0.090
probability of detection:
0.125 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.033 0.850 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.660 1.000
samples: 12 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 19.35 %coverage: 100.00