CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
2
2
14
10
2
2
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
18
10
48
10
2
2
14
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
71
14
14
100
71
14
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
29
16
77
16
3
3
23
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.40 1.17
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.360 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.073 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.625 0.857
samples: 14 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 22.58 %coverage: 100.00