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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
3
2
16
11
3
2
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
17
10
46
11
3
2
16
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
69
19
13
100
69
19
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
27
16
74
18
5
3
26
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.30 1.33
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.347 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.063 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 0.875
samples: 16 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 25.81 %coverage: 100.00