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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
2
1
15
12
2
1
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
18
11
47
12
2
1
15
30
20
12
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
80
13
7
100
80
13
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
29
18
76
19
3
2
24
48
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.067 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 15.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.35 1.25
Heidke skill score: -0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.367 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.084 -0.082
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.933
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.617 0.933
samples: 15 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 24.19 %coverage: 100.00