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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
26
4
2
32
30
4
2
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
17
7
2
26
26
4
2
32
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
72
11
6
89
83
11
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
27
11
3
42
42
6
3
52
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.210
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 0.00 16.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.36 8.00
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.185
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.185
true Kuipers skill score: 0.085 true Kuipers skill score: 0.136
threat score:
0.133 0.000 0.062
threat score:
0.085 0.233 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.025 0.000 0.007
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.094 -0.002
probability of detection:
0.133 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.085 0.636 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.938
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.731 0.938
samples: 36 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 58.06 %coverage: 100.00