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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
29
4
2
35
31
4
2
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
16
7
2
25
29
4
2
35
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
78
11
5
95
84
11
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
26
11
3
40
47
6
3
56
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.108 hitrate: 0.177
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 0.00 17.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.27 8.75
Heidke skill score: -0.338 Heidke skill score: -0.234
true Heidke skill score: 0.013 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.338 Kuipers skill score: -0.234
true Kuipers skill score: 0.041 true Kuipers skill score: 0.115
threat score:
0.065 0.000 0.057
threat score:
0.043 0.241 0.054
equitable threat score:
0.011 0.000 0.003
equitable threat score:
0.011 0.104 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.065 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.043 0.636 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.943
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.720 0.943
samples: 37 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 59.68 %coverage: 100.00