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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
2
9
0
0
0
0
4
5
2
11
10
6
4
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
2
9
37
5
0
42
4
5
2
11
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
5
10
45
0
0
0
0
20
25
10
55
50
30
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
2
3
15
60
8
0
68
6
8
3
18
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.210
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.90 0.00 2.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 3.82 2.75
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.185
true Heidke skill score: 0.098 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.185
true Kuipers skill score: 0.105 true Kuipers skill score: -0.082
threat score:
0.462 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.120 0.104 0.154
equitable threat score:
0.176 0.000 -0.019
equitable threat score:
-0.019 -0.060 0.105
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.128 0.455 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.818
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.881 0.818
samples: 20 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 32.26 %coverage: 100.00