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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
6
4
3
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
43
8
2
53
1
3
2
6
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
11
33
22
67
44
33
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
69
13
3
85
2
5
3
10
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.210
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 4.82 1.50
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.185
true Heidke skill score: 0.368 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.185
true Kuipers skill score: 0.404 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.750 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.064 0.143 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.625 0.000 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.030 0.212
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.064 0.727 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.849 0.667
samples: 9 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 14.52 %coverage: 100.00