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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
9
4
2
15
12
4
2
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
35
7
2
44
9
4
2
15
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
0
17
0
0
0
0
50
22
11
83
67
22
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
56
11
3
71
15
6
3
24
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.278 hitrate: 0.194
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.00 7.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 4.00 3.75
Heidke skill score: -0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.210
true Heidke skill score: 0.093 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.210
true Kuipers skill score: 0.150 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.133
threat score:
0.064 0.146 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.025
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.020 0.064
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.064 0.636 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.867
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.841 0.867
samples: 18 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 29.03 %coverage: 100.00