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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
5
3
2
10
9
3
2
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
38
8
2
48
5
3
2
10
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
0
0
29
0
0
0
0
36
21
14
71
64
21
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
61
13
3
77
8
5
3
16
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 4.36 2.50
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: 0.275 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.444 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.085 0.157 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.022 -0.012 0.119
probability of detection:
0.444 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.085 0.727 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.800
samples: 14 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 22.58 %coverage: 100.00