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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
0
0
0
0
3
1
2
6
7
2
2
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
40
9
2
51
3
1
2
6
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
36
9
0
45
0
0
0
0
27
9
18
55
64
18
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
65
15
3
82
5
2
3
10
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 4.64 1.50
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.257 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.297 true Kuipers skill score: 0.073
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.083 0.170 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.170 0.000 0.185
equitable threat score:
0.005 -0.001 0.212
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.085 0.818 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.824 0.667
samples: 11 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 17.74 %coverage: 100.00