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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
2
0
12
10
2
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
9
4
50
10
2
0
12
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
83
17
0
100
83
17
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
60
15
6
81
16
3
0
19
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.145
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.55 3.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.282
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.282
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.173 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 -0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.820 1.000
samples: 12 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 19.35 %coverage: 100.00