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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
1
0
10
9
1
0
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
10
4
52
9
1
0
10
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
90
10
0
100
90
10
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
61
16
6
84
15
2
0
16
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.161
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.73 2.50
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.258
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.258
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.018 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.808 1.000
samples: 10 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 16.13 %coverage: 100.00