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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
11
9
2
0
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
9
4
51
9
2
0
11
47
11
4
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
82
18
0
100
82
18
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
61
15
6
82
15
3
0
18
76
18
6
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.145
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.64 2.75
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.282
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.282
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.170 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 -0.050
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.824 1.000
samples: 11 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 17.74 %coverage: 100.00