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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
2
0
18
0
0
0
0
18
9
1
28
34
11
1
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
2
0
18
8
7
1
16
18
9
1
28
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
4
0
39
0
0
0
0
39
20
2
61
74
24
2
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
3
0
29
13
11
2
26
29
15
2
45
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.370 hitrate: 0.387
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 0.00 28.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 0.89 14.00
Heidke skill score: 0.054 Heidke skill score: 0.081
true Heidke skill score: 0.096 true Heidke skill score: 0.141
Kuipers skill score: 0.054 Kuipers skill score: 0.081
true Kuipers skill score: 0.169 true Kuipers skill score: 0.221
threat score:
0.444 0.000 0.036
threat score:
0.364 0.259 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.119 0.000 0.014
equitable threat score:
0.120 0.105 0.003
probability of detection:
0.471 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.381 0.389 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.000 0.964
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.562 0.964
samples: 46 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 74.19 %coverage: 100.00