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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
0
11
0
0
0
0
14
9
0
23
23
11
0
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
0
11
19
7
2
28
14
9
0
23
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
6
0
32
0
0
0
0
41
26
0
68
68
32
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
3
0
18
31
11
3
45
23
15
0
37
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.265 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.48 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 1.56 11.50
Heidke skill score: -0.103 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: 0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.103 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: 0.105 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.360 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.205 0.179 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.089 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.037 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.391 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.214 0.389 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.182 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.182 0.750 1.000
samples: 34 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 54.84 %coverage: 100.00