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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
0
8
0
0
0
0
7
7
0
14
14
8
0
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
0
8
28
10
2
40
7
7
0
14
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
32
5
0
36
0
0
0
0
32
32
0
64
64
36
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
2
0
13
45
16
3
65
11
11
0
23
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.318 hitrate: 0.274
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.22 7.00
Heidke skill score: -0.023 Heidke skill score: -0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.113 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.023 Kuipers skill score: -0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.187 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.467 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.163 0.208 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.193 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.044 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.556 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.750 1.000
samples: 22 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 35.48 %coverage: 100.00